Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_7/V13_732.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #732

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 732

Today's Topics:
     POTENTIAL MAJOR TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
      VERY SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SOLAR FLARE - HIGH IMPACT EXPECTED
               Re: NASA Budget
         Gonetz - KGB/GRU Lightsat service available
            Re: Fred Vote Thursday
            Re: Fred Vote Thursday
      Re: Mars "face" image data (uuencoded GIF format)

Administrivia:

    Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to
  [e-mail].  Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests,
  should be sent to [e-mail], or, if urgent, to
             [e-mail]

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 11 Jun 91 12:08:39 MDT
From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:[e-mail]> (CARY OLER)
Subject: POTENTIAL MAJOR TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"[e-mail]"

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  POTENTIAL SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                               18:00 UT, 11 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


WARNINGS ISSUED OR IN PROGRESS:

  - POTENTIAL MAJOR TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
  - POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING (PROTON)
  - SATELLITE PROTON AND PCA ACTIVITY ALERT
  - POTENTIAL MAJOR GIC ANOMALY WARNING


ATTENTION:

     The major class x12+/3B tenflare which occurred on 11 June is expected
to have a major to severe terrestrial impact.  Already, significant protons
have arrived.  The greater than 10 MeV proton levels gradually increased to a
peak of 4,400 pfu at 14:25 UT on 11 June.  The greater than 100 MeV protons
increased to a peak of 66 pfu at 12:45 UT on 11 June.  Protons at these
energy levels have been decaying since that time.  Another increase in
protons should accompany the flare shock.  A significant increase in greater
than 1 MeV protons should also be witnessed concurrent with the shock
arrival.

     At the present time, geomagnetic activity has subsided.  The last
disturbance appears to be waning.  Significant increases in activity should
therefore accompany the approaching flare shock.

     The shock from this major event is in transit at the present time and is
expected to arrive here at the Earth anytime near or after 06:00 UT on 12
June.  Conditions thereafter will deteriorate very rapidly.

     Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach at least major storm levels
with a very real possibility for severe storming (A-indices > 100).  Very
intense geomagnetic activity should occur later in the UT day on 12 June and
throughout most of the UT day on 13 June.  Conditions should begin to recover
on 14 June, although recovery will be long and slow.

     Significant HF degradation is expected.  There is a risk for widespread
HF blackouts when the main phase of this storm begins.  Severe levels of
fading, distortion and absorption can be expected to accompany this storm
event.  Conditions should begin to improve on 14 June, although a full
recovery will take quite a few additional quiet days.  The ionosphere will be
very stressed during this period and will not be in good shape for
communications.

     A very high probabiliby (> 80%) exists for widespread VHF backscatter
communications later in the UT day of 12 June and on 13 June.  Conditions
should be very favorable for backscatter from the low and middle latitudes on
these dates.  High latitudes will also have significant opportunities for VHF
backscatter, although the geometry required for backscatter will become
increasingly unfavorable as geomagnetic activity approaches or surpasses
severe storm levels.

     Extensive and widespread low-latitude auroral activity should become
visible late in the UT day of 12 June and throughout most of the UT day of 13
June.  If the impact from this flare event is as large as predicted, auroral
storming may be observed as far south or perhaps even further south than
Florida.  Continent-wide sightings may also be possible over Australia and
New Zealand.

     This is a significant storm warning.  There is a risk that this storm
event could be the largest since 1989, and may in fact become the largest
event so far this solar cycle.


PLEASE SEND ANY REPORTS OF DEGRADED RADIO PROPAGATION CONDITIONS, SIGHTINGS
OF AURORAL ACTIVITY, VHF BACKSCATTER COMMUNICATIONS OR OTHER ANOMALIES TO:
[e-mail] (INTERNET), [e-mail] (USENET), OR (SNAIL-MAIL)
TO: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL DISPATCH, P.O. BOX 357, STIRLING, ALBERTA, CANADA,
T0K 2E0.  PLEASE INCLUDE THE DATE AND TIME (LOCAL AND UT) OF THE OBSERVATION,
THE APPROXIMATE LATITUDE/LONGITUDE OF THE OBSERVATION LOCATION, AND A BRIEF
DESCRIPTION OF THE PHENOMENA OBSERVED.  WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO TAKE THE TIME
TO SEND IN OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS.


                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 11 Jun 91 00:42:09 MDT
From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:[e-mail]> (CARY OLER)
Subject: VERY SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SOLAR FLARE - HIGH IMPACT EXPECTED
X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"[e-mail]"

                        --  MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT  --

                                 JUNE 11, 1991

                              Flare Event Summary
                          Potential Impact Assessment


                                    --------



MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY

     A very powerful solar flare ripped out of Region 6659 on 11 June.  The
event began at 01:56 UT, peaked at 02:09 UT and ended at 04:40 UT on 11 June.
This event saturated the GOES sensors.  The x-rays surpassed the class X12
level for approximately 4 to 8 minutes before beginning a very slow decay.
The optical component was rated 3B.  The flare was located at a sensitive
position of N31W20.  This class X12+/3B tenflare remained in the X-class
category for almost one full hour.  The rate of decay was very gradual, as
can be seen by the end-time of the event (almost 3 hours from start to end).

This event is a very significant one.  Energetic protons at greater than 100
MeV were observed shortly after the peak x-ray flux was observed.  Protons
at greater than 100 MeV peaked at 18 pfu at 05:25 UT.  Current levels are
near 16 pfu at greater than 100 MeV.  Protons at greater than 10 MeV
skyrocketed from about 10 pfu at 02:30 UT to 980 pfu at 05:15 UT.  10 MeV
protons are currently fluctuating around the 340 to 380 pfu level.

     A major importance 3 Type II sweep and a major importance 3 Type IV
sweep were observed from this event.  Strong radio bursts have also been
observed (most of which are still in progress).  The 15400 MHz burst was
measured at 28,000 sfu, while the 245 MHz burst was measured at 7,500 pfu.
Please note that this is preliminary data and may not be entirely accurate.

     The integrated x-ray flux from this event was high, rated at 1.80 joules
per square meter.  Concurrent with this major flare was a severe geomagnetic
excursion.  The combined effects of the major to severe geomagnetic storming
with the high-intensity x-ray levels produced a major HF blackout locally
despite the low solar zenith angle.  Widespread HF blackouts have been
observed.

     A polar cap absorption event (PCA) has recurred with this most recent
energetic event.  Preliminary data indicates absorption levels are
fluctuating around the 4 dB level.


POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

     This class X12+/3B tenflare will have a major to severe terrestrial
impact.  The impact from this flare could surpass the intensity of the
present disturbance (which is very near severe levels).

     A Major to Severe geomagnetic impact is expected anytime near or after
06:00 UT on 12 June.  Conditions are expected to remain at major to severe
storm levels until 14 June, when conditions should begin to fall to active to
minor storm levels (again, barring additional powerful flaring).

     A Major to Severe auroral storm is expected to accompany this major
interplanetary disturbance.  There is a very high risk (>70%) for significant
low-latitude auroral activity on 12 June and 13 June.  The highest
probabilities for low-latitude auroral activity will occur on 13 June, with a
smaller chance (~ 45%) for residual low-latitude activity on 14 June.  June
12-14 (centered on 13 June) represents a very high risk period for
low-latitude auroral activity.

     A very strong HF radio propagation impact is expected to accompany this
major disturbance.  Despite the fact that we are presently experiencing
significant HF disruptions from the present disturbance (which was caused by
the less powerful X12+/3B flare of 09 June), conditions are expected to
become further disturbed when the interplanetary shock from this last major
flare arrives on 12 June.  Widespread HF blackouts may accompany this
disturbance on 13 June.

     A very high probability (> 80%) for VHF auroral backscatter
communications will exist for 13 June.  We are presently experiencing
conditions very favorable for VHF backscatter.  Conditions should become most
favorable on 13 June.  High latitude regions are not expected to have
particularly good opportunities for VHF backscatter.  This activity is
expected to dominate over the middle and low latitude regions (particularly
the middle latitudes).

     The ionosphere will not recover to significantly useful levels
throughout the remainder of this week.  It will require several quiet days to
strengthen to levels useful for reliable long-distance communication, and
these quiet periods are not expected to occur for the next 7 to 10 days.

     Further major X-class flares are possible from Region 6659, although
over the next 24 hours, predominatly minor M-class flares should be observed.
High energy events are possible from this Region.  White light flares may be
possible.


**  End of Alert  **

------------------------------

Date: 11 Jun 91 17:35:12 GMT
From: news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utzoo![e-mail]  (Kieran A. Carroll)
Subject: Re: NASA Budget

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Craig E. Ward) writes:
>
>>>The American Geophysical Union recognizes that passage of this
>>>amendment would do serious damage to future space science programs
>>
>>With all due respect, the AGU is wrong and is playing the role of a patsy for
>>non-space special interests.
>
>...you don't know what the hell you are talking about...
>Calling the AGU "non-space" is like calling Boeing "non-airplane" ...

It seems pretty obvious that Craig was >not< calling the AGU "non-space".
The term "non-space" in his posting sure looks like it referred
to the "special interests" that were "making patsies" of the AGU.
You should read people's postings more carefully, Nick, before
letting loose at them. If you actually care about what they
think, that is, beyond the fact that they've reached a different
conclusion than you.
--

     Kieran A. Carroll @ U of Toronto Aerospace Institute
     uunet!attcan!utzoo!kcarroll [e-mail]

------------------------------

Date: 11 Jun 91 19:34:25 GMT
From: well![e-mail]  (Robert Horvitz)
Subject: Gonetz - KGB/GRU Lightsat service available



The 1 June 1991 issue of Jane's Defence Weekly has an article on
"lightsats" - lightweight, low-orbit, low-cost, short-lived
satellites (pp. 926-7).  Included is a brief description of "the
only truly operational lightsat system in the world," run by
the Soviet Union:

"The most recent generation is known as 'Sextet' in the West and
is launched in groups of six on Proton boosters.  The currently
active constellation of 24 small satellites is referred to by
the Soviets as Gonetz (Messenger).  Gonetz is believed to be
used by the KGB and the GRU for store-and-forward messaging
because their low earth orbit periodically places them out of
range of receiving stations.  It is unclear what, if any,
distinction exists between the military and civilian versions of
Gonetz.

"Last year, an international consortium was formed to market
Gonetz worldwide for civilian digital relay of voice, fax and
data from isolated locations to hub stations. Within the USA,
marketing services are provided for the Consortium of Small
Satellite Constructors and Service Providers (COSSCASP) by New
York-based DYJ Technologies..."

Does anyone have more information about this system?  Like, how
much it costs, and what the phone/address of DYJ Technologies
is?  What frequencies it uses?  Data formats, etc.?

--
!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|
Robert Horvitz    1122-1/2 E St. SE    Washington, DC 20003-2232    USA
                      uucp:  ...uunet!capital!rhorvitz

------------------------------

Date: 12 Jun 91 00:46:18 GMT
From: hub.ucsb.edu!ucsbuxa![e-mail]  (Charles Frank Radley)
Subject: Re: Fred Vote Thursday

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Allen W. Sherzer) writes:


>In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Matthew DeLuca)
>writes:

>>Maybe this near-death will scare the Freedom people into getting some
>>hardware built...

The schedules we have been working to do not require delivery of
hardware until 1993.
   We have been on schedule all along.     Why do people
keep complaining the hardware has not been built, we have to design
it first.....and we have not even had a PDR yet.
  Well, we did, but congress cancelled it and told us to have
another one.
  We will continue to save costs wherever possible....
There are various ways this could be done.
   But we have discussed this before.

------------------------------

Date: 12 Jun 91 05:06:04 GMT
From: sequent!muncher.sequent.com![e-mail]
Subject: Re: Fred Vote Thursday

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Charles Frank Radley) writes:

>The schedules we have been working to do not require delivery of
>hardware until 1993.   We have been on schedule all along.

When people beleive Big Lies, they don't mess around.  :-)
When Reagan first announced Fred, it was supposed to be
completed, and inhabited by a crew of 8, by 1992.  It was supposed
to cost $8 billion.  Or so NASA said.

As of 1991, it is not supposed to be inhabited by a crew of 4
until 2000, and the 30-year projection is $80 billion (what NASA
says now) or $120 billion (GAO).   In other words, NASA is 8 years
behind schedule -- one year of schedule slip per year.

Which brings up the interesting question: assuming Fred and its
champions survive in the NASA leadership and Congress through
2000, what will be the estimated date of completion at that time?
Anybody want to start a betting pool?  :-)


--
Nick Szabo                [e-mail]
"If you understand something the first time you see it, you probably
knew it already.  The more bewildered you are, the more successful
the mission was." -- Ed Stone, Voyager space explorer

------------------------------

Date: 12 Jun 91 04:55:35 GMT
From: sequent!muncher.sequent.com![e-mail]
Subject: Re: Mars "face" image data (uuencoded GIF format)

I hereby propose a contest.  Who is the first person who can
discover the Venus Face from the Magellan data?

The prize is a free Dan Quayle calendar.


--
Nick Szabo                [e-mail]
"If you understand something the first time you see it, you probably
knew it already.  The more bewildered you are, the more successful
the mission was." -- Ed Stone, Voyager space explorer

------------------------------

End of SPACE Digest V13 #732
*******************